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October 29



Todayinah Editor Editor says, what if the Wall Street Crash of 1929 was averted? muses Jeff Provine on the This Day in Alternate History web site. Please note that the opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). This story was published in the August 2011 edition of Changing the Times Magazine.

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In 1929, the wild financial speculation of the Roaring Twenties came to a sudden halt in October when the stock market began to slide.

Banker's Committee Stops Panic of '29 Worries spread through the economic community about the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Tariffs had always been a point of contention among Americans, even spurring South Carolina to threaten secession over the Tariff Act of 1828. Producers such as farmers and manufacturers called for protective tariffs while merchants and consumers demanded low prices. The American economy soared while post-war Europe rebuilt in the '20s, and the Tariff Act of 1922 skimmed valuable revenue from the nation's income that would otherwise have been needed as taxes. The country barely noticed, and the economy surged forward as new technological luxuries became available as well as new disposable income.

Meanwhile, however, the nation faced an increasingly difficult drought while food prices continued to drop during Europe's recovery. Farmers were stretched thinner and thinner, prompting calls for protective agricultural tariffs and cheaper manufactured goods. In his 1928 presidential campaign, Herbert Hoover promised just that, and as the legislature met in 1929, talks on a new tariff began. Led by Senator Reed Smoot (R-Utah) and Representative Willis C. Hawley (R-Oregon), the bill quickly became more than Hoover and the farmers had bargained for as rates would increase to a level exceeding 1828 for industrial products as well as agricultural. A new story by Jeff ProvineThe revenue would be a great boon, but it unnerved economists, who wondered if it could kill the economic growth already slowing by a dipping real estate market.

The weakened nerves shifted from economists to investors, who took the heated debate in the Senate as a clue that times may become rough and decided to get out of the stock market while they could. Prices had skyrocketed over the course of the '20s as the middle class blossomed and minor investors came into being. Another hallmark of the '20s, credit, enabled people to buy stock on margin, borrowing money they could invest at what they hoped would be a higher percentage. The idea of a "money-making machine" spread, and August of 1929 showed more than $8.5 billion in loans, more than all of the money in circulation in the United States. The market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 and then began a downward correction. At the rebound in late October, panicked selling began. On October 24, what became known as "Black Thursday", the market fell more than ten percent. On Friday, it did the same, and the initial outlook for the next week was dire.

Amid the early selling in October, financiers noted that a crash was coming and met on October 24 while the market plummeted. The heads of firms and banks such as Chase, Morgan, and the National City Bank of New York collaborated and finally placed vice-president of the New York Stock Exchange Richard Whitney in charge of stopping the disaster. Forty-one-year-old Whitney was a successful financier with an American family dating back to 1630 and numerous connections in the banking world who had purchased a seat on the NYSE Board of Governors only two years after starting his own firm. Whitney's initial strategy was to replicate the cure for the Panic of 1907: purchasing large amounts of valuable stock above market price, starting with the "blue chip" favorite U.S. Steel, the world's first billion-dollar corporation.

On his way to make the purchase, however, Whitney bumped into a junior who was analyzing the banking futures based on the increase of failing mortgages from failing farms and a weakening real estate market. He suggested that the problems of the new market were caused from the bottom-up, and a top-down solution would only put off the inevitable. Instead of his ostentatious show of purchasing to show the public money was still to be had, Whitney decided to use the massive banking resources behind him to support the falling. He made key purchases late on the 24th, and then his staff worked through the night determining what stocks were needlessly inflated, what were solid, and what could be salvaged (perhaps even at a profit). Stocks continued to tumble that Friday, but by Monday thanks to word-of-mouth and glowing press from newspapers and the new radio broadcasts, Tuesday ended with a slight upturn in the market of .02 percent. Numerically unimportant, the recovery of public support was the key success.

With the initial battle won, Whitney spearheaded a plan to salvage the rest of the crisis as real estate continued to fall and banks (which were quickly running out of funds as they seized more and more of the market) would soon have piles of worthless mortgaged homes and farms. Banks organized themselves around the Federal Reserve, founded in 1913 after a series of smaller panics and determined rules that would keep banks afloat. Further money came from lucrative deals with the wealthiest men in the country such as John D. Rockefeller, Henry Ford, and the Mellons of Pittsburgh. Businesses managed to continue work despite down-turning sales through loans, though the unemployment rate did increase from 3 to 5 percent over the winter.

The final matter was the question of international trade. As the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act continued in the Senate, economists predicted retaliatory tariffs from other countries to kill American exports, but Washington turned a deaf ear. Whitney decided to protect his investments in propping up the economy by investing with campaign contributions. Democrats took the majority as the Republicans fell to Whitney's use of the press to blame the woes of the economy on Congressional "airheads". Representative Hawley himself lost his seat in the House, which he had held since 1907, to Democrat William Delzell. President Hoover, a millionaire businessman before entering politics, noted the shift, but remained quiet and dutifully vetoed the new tariff.

By 1931, it became steadily obvious that America had shifted to an oligarchy. The banks propped up the market and were propped up themselves by a handful of millionaires. If Rockefeller wanted, he could single-handedly pull his money and collapse the whole of the American nation. Whitney took greater power as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, whose new role controlled indirectly everything of economic and political worth. As the Thirties dragged on, the havoc of the Dust Bowl made food prices increase while simultaneously weakening the farming class, and Whitney gained further power by ousting Secretary of Agriculture Arthur Hyde and installing his own man as a condition for Hoover's reelection in '32.

Chairman Whitney would "rule" the United States, wielding public relations power and charisma to give Americans a strong sense of national emergency and patriotism during times like the Japanese War in '35 (which secured new markets in East Asia) and the European Expedition in '39. He employed the Red Scare to keep down ideas of insurrection and used the FBI as a secret police, but his ultimate power would be that, at any point, he could tamper with interest rates or stock and property value, and the country would spiral into rampant unemployment and depression, dragging the rest of the world with it.


Entry posted by Guest Historian Jeff Provine Email the AuthorVisit the Authors Web Site © Jeff Provine, 2010-.
Story Tags Click on the hyperlinked metadata to surf the site! Permalinks: Post, Day. Browse Thread: Jeff Provine Blog Source: Jeff Provine’s Blog Labels: Wall Street, Stock Market, Financial Crisis, New York, America.

Todayinah Editor Editor says, in reality, the bottom of the market fell out on Black Tuesday, the worst day in the Stock Market Crash with sixteen million shares traded, a record that would hold until 1968. Whitney's plan of using "blue chip" stocks was too little much too late. Though he was considered a Wall Street guru for much of his life, it would be proven in 1938 that his company was insolvent and he was an embezzler. Whitney would plead guilty and was sentenced to Sing Sing, where he served as a model prisoner and afterward became a successful small businessman. Despite a petition signed by 1028 economists, President Hoover did not veto the Smooth-Hawley Tariff after it was approved in the Senate in March of 1930.


Readers Comment Jared Myers commented on 2011-08-14 02:57:07 ~ If one were to ask Murray Rothbard and Milton Friedman, the Federal Reserve is to blame for the Crash of '29. As an American, it's WAY past time to audit (and then abolish) the Federal Reserve. This is a scary AH edition, haha. :-)

Readers Comment Matthew Dattilo commented on 2011-08-14 03:41:03 ~ Great AH! Interestingly enough, something close to the business oligarchy mentioned in the writeup was almost established in the United States during FDR's first term. A group of businessmen sought to essentially unseat the President and run the country through someone they controlled. They approached Smedley Butler, a retired Marine Corps general and the man who wrote the book "War is a Racket". Butler alerted some contacts in the FBI and the entire thing went away in short order. It seems far-fetched today, but you have to remember that people were desperate.

Readers Comment Eric Oppen commented on 2011-08-14 05:09:23 ~ Interesting AH, but I'm not versed enough in either economics or that particular period in the US to comment very well.

Readers Comment Eric Lipps commented on 2011-08-14 13:18:10 ~ Of *course* Milton Friedman blames the Fed? It's part of the gummint, isn't it? And we all know the "wisdom of the market" is far superior to that of government bureaucrats, don't we? Just look at 1987, or 2008! Friedman is very articulate, but capitalism is his religion. He's made it plain over the years that he can't bear to think that there may be times when government is part of the solution, not the problem.

Readers Comment David Tenner commented on 2011-08-14 13:18:10 ~ *Pace* the late Jude Wanniski, the notion that the Smoot-Hawley debate was responsible for the Crash has been rejected by most economists.

See Douglas A. Irwin, *Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression*, (Princeton University Press 2011), pp. 56-59. http://books.google.com/books?id=MIDsnT3Ze0YC&pg=PA56

"The fact that the October stock market crash coincided with the Senate tariff debate has led some to sugggest a link between the two...

"Wanniski argues that the prospect of a high tariff bill passing spooked the forward-looking stock market. But in October, 1929 the [anti- protectionist] coalition was generally successful in reducing tariff rates on industrial goods, which raised the likelihood that the bill would in fact be defeated. As Sumner (1992, 303) notes, 'it is hard to reconcile Wanniski's views with the widespread contemporaneous interpretation that the four weeks from mid-October to mid-November had been a major setback for the protectionist wing of the Republican party.' [Protectionist writer] Alfred Eckes (1998) countered Wanniski by suggesting that the coalition's efforts to reduce industrial tariffs may have led to the stock market crash because business wanted higher duties. Although this is also improbable, it is more consistent with the events of October 1929.

"In fact, it is unlikely that the debate over the tariff bill had any impact on the overall stock market. The run-up and subsequent crash in stock prices was not broadly based, but almost entirely concentrated in public utilities companies, a sector of the economy perhaps least affected by import duties...Utitlity holding companies and investment trusts were highly leveraged and used large amounts of debt and preferred stock to make their purchases. The sector was vulnerable to any bad news regarding utility regulation. In October 1929, the bad news arrived: a series of regulatory decisions that were adverse to the public utilities triggered a decline in the price of utility stocks. Investors who had bought on margin were forced to sell, leading to panic selling of all stocks. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board had been tightening credit since February 1928 in an effort to reign in surging stock prices, and that effort was bound to succeed at some point.

"Economic historian Eugene White...finds 'no evidence to support the view that the Smoot Hawley Tariff contributed significantly to the crash.' If the tariff was an important factor influencing stock prices, one would expect the stock of firms in industries affected by trade to move differently from other industires. This did not happen...

"As a result, it is unlikely that the Senate's deliberations over the tariff had much to do with the October 1929 stock market crash."

Readers Comment Steven Fisher commented on 2011-08-14 18:56:18 ~ Oh dear. As glad as I am that they stopped the Crash, and the Depression, I think that I prefer my true democracy too much to give it up like that.

Readers Comment Jackie Rose commented on 2012-10-30 15:15:32 ~ The question is...would the Depression still have struck Germany? No Depression, no Hitler. But if Hitler had come to power but Roosevelt had not,, because there was no Depression in America, then there would be no Lend Lease to save Britain. Quite a dilemma!







© Today in Alternate History, 2013-. All characters appearing in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.