| August 8 |  |
Editor says, what if an act of terror set the world right? Please note that the opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). This story was published in the August 2012 edition of Changing the Times Magazine.
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In 1945, the Potsdam Agreement was agreed a week later than expected because Ukrainian nationalists murdered General Secretary Stalin en-route to the Conference.
Stalin killed on eve of the Potsdam Conference
by Ed & Scott PalterOf course this act of terrorism dramatically changed the calculations of the four principle Allied powers. And although post-war security arrangements had been tentatively discussed, a more favourable climate was now in place to devise the conditions for a more stable, robust quadrapartite agreement. A re-assessment was to be expected since the three primary heads of state had changed since the Yalta Agreement. But also, on the eve of the conference, President Truman learnt that the Trinity tests were running late due to technical problems.
The delay in developing a nuclear bomb meant that by early August, the Soviets were already advancing deep into Japanese territory. But not only did these "facts on the ground" provide General Secretary Beria with a stronger case for participating in Japanese occupation, another significant development had also occurred. It now appeared quite possible that a de-militirized but unified German State could be formed on the lines of Finland. This heightened level of confidence led to the US Leadership being far more willing to let the Soviets in. Also, it built upon the German model of finding global security solutions through the Grand Alliance, and therefore establishing a de facto American protectorate in Japan would have been a unilateral step backwards. One final factor was that Truman much preferred to put in place civilian leadership than military governors, it was the deliberate step towards peace that he wanted the US to take. The peaceful partition of China was to prove him right.
Entry posted by Todayinah Editor
© Alternate Historian, 2004-.Story Tags
Permalinks: Post, Day. Browse Thread: Politicians Source: Wikipedia Labels: Potsdam, Truman, Stalin, Attlee, World War 2. Editor says, in authoring this article we have received some valued advice and guidance from Scott and also repurposed content from Wikipedia.
~ The East will stand united against the West!
~ This would have been interesting, but there might have been an implosion in the USSR as generals and Party leaders fought for power.
~ FDR, Churchill, Stalin: none of them made it. Wonder how long the next generation can hold on to peace.
~ Beria would have assumed control but his hold would be weaker than Khrushchev-Malenkov in 1953. Reunited Germany would have come but some years later. Important part is Cold War does not happen. Beria would need a decade of peace at least to consolidate power.
~ Just to start with, the Ukrainians would have been slaughtered.
~ Too many independent divergences. I prefer scenarios in which all subsequent changes flow clearly from a single altered event.
That aside, it's unlikely that the West would have tolerated a Finlandlized Germany. Very likely the U.S. would all too soon have been holding its nose and supporting hard-right elements, including former Nazis, in postwar Germany to force something like the division we saw in our own history. Meanwhile, as Jacie Rose suggests, the Soviets probably would have launched a brutal reprisal campaign against the Ukrainians.
As for Japan, at Yalta in our history the Soviets agreed on May 8 to enter the war against the Japanese in three months--and honored that commitment, declaring war on August 8, three months to the day later (and two days after Hiroshima). Assuming development of the A-bomb were delayed, we might have ended up with a Communist North Japan and a pro-Western South Japan, on the lines of Korea (except that the DMZ might have been a stretch of ocean).
~ Timing is everything. 1945-1946 Truman administration was preoccupied with domestic problems. If Beria's SU is semi-cooperative Bizonia never forms and Germany sometime in the 50's is reunited on the Austrian model. In this ATL NATO also never forms.
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